This has always been a Democratic year.
McCain’s best hopes were swamped by the banking meltdown . . . an international crisis that was a long time in the making, but which (short term) was blamed on President Bush.
Before getting to the good stuff . . . one reminder:
Vote.
The size of any candidate’s victory matters . . . so if you prefer Senator Obama your vote counts. Polls and predictions don’t count tomorrow and McCain can win so if you prefer Senator McCain, you too should vote.
Here is what I think will happen tomorrow (not what I hope will happen):
Five Predictions:
1. The Dems will not get a filibuster proof margin in the Senate, but it will be close.
2. There is no Bradley effect . . . thank God.
3. Jack Murtha will lose and Bill Russell, not a basketball player, will become a minor Republican star for beating him on a bad night. Let’s see what he can do with it.
4. Sarah Palin will be the other winner on the Republican side Tuesday night. 2012 begins then and she is best positioned to take advantage.
5. Finally, Proposition 8 will narrowly pass.
Final Prediction of the Outcome:
Obama/Biden 51%
McCain/Palin 48%
Obama/Biden 311 (picks up Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada)
McCain/Palin 227 (keeps Florida)
This is a Bush 1988 win . . . strong, but not great considering the climate.
Best Case for McCain/Palin (with some evidence it could happen):
McCain/Palin 50%
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain must win Pennsylvania or Colorado to win:
McCain/Palin 281 (Pennsylvania)
Obama/Biden (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa)
Truman replaced by McCain for all losing candidates for the rest of my life . . .
Best Case for Obama/Biden
Obama/Biden 364 (add North Carolina and Indiana to my prediction)
McCain/Palin 174
This is the historic win that Obama wants. It breaks the electoral lock on the South . . . big time . . . and approaches Reagan 1980 territory.