Three Assumptions:
1. This debate is all about Governor Palin. Senator Biden is the prop for America to learn more about the Governor. People care about Palin, but nobody is excited about Senator Biden.
2. It may not be fair (I have argued all week it is not), but if Governor Palin is to have a future in Republican politics, she must not Quayle herself tonight.
She did an outstanding job in her introduction by McCain and at the Convention. That image still exists in many people’s minds. Fewer have seen her Couric interview which was bad for her.
A good debate tonight and the Couric interview will be seen by most of us as an anomaly caused by the insane pressure of the ugly assault on this bright young Governor. Those who argue with us will (actually unfairly) look to be proven wrong. The opposite is also true.
It may not be reasonable (it is not), but this is the major moment of Palin’s career. If she fluffs it, then the facts will not matter regarding her executive experience. Supporters (like I am) will be thought wrong-headed by most.
Palin will be political toast for the foreseeable future.
If she nails it, then her critics will look panicky and foolish. That may not be fair, but my guess is that this is how it will be play out in most Republican homes.
My pro-Palin arguments would wither in the face of a bad debate, just as anti-Palin arguments will die if she is good.
Her executive experience justifies the pick in my mind up to this point as a reasonable reach for a star, but politics is not always reasonable. If she Quayles tonight, then it was a bad pick politically.
Right now the few conservative pundits who have turned on her look hasty. If she performs well, they will be marginalized when it comes to Palin in most Republican minds. If she performs badly, then they will have made bad arguments but will have been politically justified by events.
It may not be fair, but that is reality. Since McCain will likely lose (due the stock market drop and the tenor of the times), this debate is more about 2012 and the Republican Party than 2008.
A Palin victory could help McCain (who might still win after all . . . though it is looking bad), but it would make her the prohibitive front runner for 2012 if he does not.
A bad loss and it would take years to fix her national brand. Most of us would sadly have moved on to other rising stars (Louisiana anyone?) by then.
3. Palin must not just win the hearts of the audience, she must do so with a few answers that show a detailed grasp of the issues. The SNL stereotype is taking hold . . . and she cannot just win the debate with Reagan like quips and anecdotes to fight it off. She does NOT need to wonk out in the debate. It would be a mistake to do so, since wonks lose the public, but she must wonk out on at least one or two answers.
Obviously she must avoid a positive gaffe (see Quayle) or a blank moment (see her Couric interviews) at all costs.
Biden?
He is the prop for the Sarah Palin show. That assessment shows the potential genius of McCain’s pick. If she comes through, she will help McCain who only has a puncher’s chance (knock out or lose) to win. If she blows up, she was a bad pick, but better than a boring pick that would have allowed McCain to be this years Bob Dole. McCain ran to win. Tonight we will see if his reasonable bet paid off.
I am betting that Governor Sarah Palin will come through, but if I am wrong will admit it.