The news on Wall Street has been bad, but should start getting better.
Christians face death in India.
Some very good students are exploring Phaedo at my house on Wednesday nights.
That is all news.
Polls are not news . . . and remember I am not saying this because they now show an Obama-Biden uptick. They do, but while better for Team Obama than the reverse it is not fundamentally altering the contest.
As I have said since early summer, this election comes in phases. Over excitement in any direction is unwise during a phase. Everything waits for the debates . . . and the first debate will count the most. Somehow the McCain camp managed to get the first debate switched to foreign policy. This is a masterful move as it plays to Senator McCain’s strength. I have noticed that the McCain camp, usually so quick to react, has not made much of Senator Obama’s “negotiations” with Iraq.
Why?
Perhaps they are saving the big attack for the debate. Obama will have to think on his feet to respond to the attack which he must know is coming, but which he cannot (now) be sure will come in a particular way.
The election is not back to where it started, however.
In looking at the data closely, I am convinced that Team Obama has a real problem.
Facts:
1. In my voting lifetime no Democratic candidate has gotten over half the vote.
2. This remains, especially in the swing states, a center-right country. People don’t like taxes. They don’t like abortion. They like God (I am sure He is gratified). Pundits often listen to themselves so much they forget this basic fact.
3. The current “undecideds” probably are not. Some will not vote, but most are in the McCain demographic. McCain will get most of those votes. If he is tied or close (as he is now), then Senator McCain will probably win.
4. Obama has gone negative more often than McCain. Really. He has yet to pay a price, but the price is coming. He has dropped his tough attacks and had to do so just to keep from cratering. He cannot “take off the gloves” in October, when he has already so.
5. This election will hinge on Colorado. If I were a Republican, winning a state I usually win (but which IS changing) in order to win it all would still make me happy.
Senator Obama has only one thing going for him at this point: it is not a Republican year. His only hope (and it is a big one) is that disgust with the Republicans carries him over the top. However, Sarah Palin has restored base Republicans confidence in themselves so this may no longer work. Base Republicans vote. Do base Democrats? Will the youth vote finally show up in November numbers that matter?
Senator Obama is no longer the prohibitive favorite.