On June 17, I urged readers to avoid poll fever and the day-to-day frenzy about who is up and who is down in the race for the White House.
I stand by most of what I wrote in that post.
What I Got Wrong
One exception is Sarah Palin’s pick by John McCain. This choice has had a larger impact than I thought it would. Palin was fifth on my list of helpful picks for McCain, but the Governor is a stunning campaigner. (By the way, ignore the media meme that Palin was a surprise pick from out the Alaska blue. Any reader of Republican leaning web sites knew she was a coming star and might be selected . . . especially if Obama did not pick a woman.)
Obama Should Win, But His Campaign Is Committing Strategic Error After Error
The major predication that I think is still true is this: the election is Senator Obama’s to lose.
This is a Democratic year with an unpopular Republican president. It is hard to win three times in a row . . . and so McCain faces a head wind. However, Senator Obama, while smart and a great speaker, is proving to be a poor campaigner. He made five critical mistakes over the summer that have evened the campaign. If he continues as he has begun, then he will lose.
What were those mistakes?
First, he did not pretend he was looking at Senator Clinton for Vice-President. He was not going to pick her (it would have been a disaster), but he should have looked as if he was going to do so. Senator Obama has party unity now, but it took him too long to get what he could have gotten more easily.
Second, Senator Obama took his tour of the Middle East which was a great success, but then went to Europe and gave his huge speech in Germany. He should have stuck to the Middle East because his “one world” speech was bad American politics.
Third, he wasted his Vice-Presidential pick on Biden. You would be hard pressed to name one thing that Biden brings to the ticket electorally. Obama thought he was winning and picked a gaffe machine. Every day Biden says something that distracts from the ticket’s message.
Experience? If this election comes down to experience, then McCain will win at the top of the ticket. Biden is a boring blowhard that does not even put a state in play. Senator Obama should have gone to Indiana or Virginia if he wanted a safe and boring pick.
Third, Senator Obama keeps acting as his own attack dog. Biden looks terrible on the attack and Palin has irritated Obama, so Senator Obama is making the mistake of lowering himself to debate the Republican number two.
Tip for Election Watchers: Any day Obama says Palin’s name is a victory for John McCain.
Fourth, Senator Obama turned down public funding for his campaign. There is a reason everyone else in modern political history in both parties took it (including cash rich candidates like Reagan and W). Obama is now spending time raising money when he should be campaigning.
Fifth, Senator Obama wasted untold millions “expanding the map.” Pride and the desire for a landslide had him setting up shop in Georgia. He was never, ever going to get a majority in Georgia. Trying wasted money better spent in Michigan.
As a result, for the first time this election, there are serious “blue” electoral votes in play (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota in that order) that should not be in play. Remember that Obama cannot win with just his “base states.” He must expand or fail.
If I were John McCain and the election came down to Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado voting Republican in a presidential race, I would like my chances. Senator Obama still has a safer electoral base, but he is not expanding the map at present, McCain is. He should get a new campaign manager (in a quiet staff shakeup) fast.
In short, Democrats nominated a ticket that is one of the few (Clinton would have been the other) that could lose this election. Republicans nominated one of the few (McCain-Palin) that can win.
What Is Next?
Obama is in trouble in a Democratic year.
He needs a small lead to avoid getting slammed when polls begin to tighten their screens and move to “likely voters.” If McCain is still leading (over all the polls) next week, then panic will begin to set in on the liberal side. Democrats are notorious for their civil wars and the Denver compromise in the party depended on his winning.
Still, he should win. He must stop trying for a landslide and focus on the electoral votes it takes. If he can just stop the bleeding, the normal politics of the year should reassert itself.
The danger: since I have been able to vote no Democratic candidate has gotten over half the vote. As a liberal Democrat, Obama may have an absolute ceiling. He cannot win by carrying New England, New York, and California by huge margins.
Relying on the notoriously fickle youth vote is also an error. High turn out in Iowa in winter means nothing in November. Democratic politics is littered with the graves of campaigns who claimed that this year the youth vote would make a difference.
Put it this way: If you wanted to win, would you rather have the senior citizen vote or the senior in college vote? For some bizarre reason, Senator Obama has never pivoted toward the older demographic. It is almost, but not quite, too late.
If Obama keeps pandering to the Internet left, then McCain need only look different from Bush to win. Right now McCain does and right now McCain would win. Obama could gain major traction by rebuking some minor blogger for running smears on Palin.
Why hasn’t he done so?
Too many people running his campaign like too many lefty bloggers. It is as if “Free Republic” was running the McCain campaign.
Democrats misread the electorate. They were tired of Bush and the Republicans, but were not yearning for liberals.
It Will Come Down To The First Debate
None of this will matter if either candidate wins the first debate. That will reset the race.
Senator Obama is lucky that the first debate is soon and that it is on the economy. He is unlucky that people perceive him to be the “great communicator” when debating is not particularly part of his skill set. Expectations will be high. McCain is not a good debater either, but everyone knows he cannot give a “great speech.” Expectations will be lower.
If McCain can communicate a plan on the economy, then he can win the debate. If he wins the first debate, then I believe he will win. If Obama wins it, then the race will return to the Obama-up-but-close election it was until the conventions. McCain will have a chance. If McCain is horrid, then the election is over.
To stay in the race, then, McCain only needs a debate tie or a narrow loss.
Finally, follow the money. If Obama is not raising seventy-five million or more, then he is in deep, deep trouble. The press is not reporting his huge campaign overhead and costs. They will report layoffs. Layoffs in the vaunted Obama machine will start a death cycle.
Will Obama get his act together?
Beating the “vaunted Clinton machine” was always an overrated achievement (even by me). In retrospect it is easy to see that Senator Clinton was a poor communicator outside her base and had a bad front-loaded strategy. She polled very badly compared to other leading Democrats against the Republicans and so was (at the time) a higher risk pick. Democrats, desperate to win, were open to “another.”
The question: was the Obama campaign good or was it just a Vice-Presidential bid that got lucky?
Is his staff over its head?
Can Obama come back?
You have to think he will. He is still the favorite, but he has blown the spring and the summer.