Most politicians love to be loved.
They love to be loved so much that they get over exposed.
An example is Senator Obama. Since the start of the year, it has been obvious to everyone, even us, that the Obama campaign was playing with fire. Our media culture gets sick of a celebrity fast. One can become a popular favorite quickly in the You-Tube era, but die just as quickly by the same process.
Governor Palin is having her celebrity moment . . . and the McCain camp is being smart enough to play it correctly.
They are not going to send her on every talk show and give us All Palin All the Time. My guess? If the McCain camp is smart, they will avoid over-exposing her and are going to build up her next big test on October 2 at the Vice-Presidential debate.
Her foes, especially the unhinged ones, will beg her to do “talk shows” as if these programs are proof of anything other than the ability to do talk shows. They know that if they can puncture the mystery a bit, show how capable she is by having her commit to many interviews, that the overexposure will take some of the heat off Biden. They will hint darkly and more and more loudly that she is in hiding and that this reveals something Big about John McCain’s judgment.
A stupid candidate would rush her to talk shows. We already know she can do an interview. They are on-line from before her pick.
The McCain camp and Governor Palin are too smart to destroy the debate build up. They will keep the mystery going up to the debate . . . giving Governor Palin a chance to once again demolish expectations. People will think of her once again, thanks to her opponents, as unable to perform.
The bar will be set so low that if she does very well, she will be Lincoln and Reagan combined to the audience.
For non-political junkies and for the vast majority of the nation who cannot go to her rallies, the debate will be the first they see of her since the Convention. Political junkies will complain she is staying on script before then, but this is important, because she cannot afford a single gaffe. The media is waiting, longing, for just one Dan Quayle moment.
Biden says and does things nearly every day that would start a media feeding frenzy on Palin.
Meanwhile, Palin will horde her popularity for the Vice-Presidential debates. She will not be over-exposed. The exception to this plan will be when Senator Obama is foolish enough to attack her (the bottom of the ticket) on issues like ear marks. John McCain would like nothing better than a back and forth between Senator Obama and Governor Palin about Governor Palin . . . since Governor Palin is likely more expert on her own record! That would allow John McCain to play the statesman rising above it all.
Mostly Palin will raise gobs of money for McCain and engage in the traditional Vice-Presidential job of rousing the base. Palin will also be used in small towns across the West and Mid-West to put Senator Obama on the defensive in swing states (watch Michigan) he cannot afford to lose.
She will be helped by her foes insanity. Some will cry theocrat, ending Obama’s outreach to most Evangelicals. Others will keep lying about her private life. Senator Obama, who has been honorable toward Governor Palin, is being undone by the folly of his supporters. If you doubt this, the Atlantic Monthly (a fine magazine) has a commentator who could write regarding a failure to go on talk shows:
This is getting to Manchurian Candidate levels of creepiness. It’s deeply sinister and slightly terrifying.
Savor that hyperbole. Failure to go on “Meet the Press” for two weeks is deeply sinister. As my daughter would text: LOLMTP!
Think how Senator Obama must despise this rhetoric from his supporters that is harming his cause at every turn! This same commentator was breathless as he waited for Alaska divorce papers of a business associate to reveal tawdry secrets about Governor Palin (”Oh. My. God.”) and passed on wildly unsubstantiated rumors about her baby. The papers contained nothing and the baby is (of course!) hers.
Palin’s foes (even more than Obama’s) have gone mad.
These Palin opponents, who really should be paid by the McCain campaign, will keep spinning that she is woefully stupid and unprepared for the upcoming debate or unable to take hard media exposure or unable to speak with a script (see interviews such as this one to see how stupid that is) and that she is in “hiding.” What Palin will not do is subject herself to a reporter looking to give her a quiz question that will trip her up . . . as if trivia winners were good candidates and Jeopardy should be used to select candidates.
All of this media chatter about itself will lower expectations for her performance and build up expectations for Biden. Biden is gaffe prone, but can be an excellent debater. However, Biden’s friends will almost certainly fall into the McCain trap of picturing Poor Sarah huddling with her briefing books before facing Big Bad Biden.
This sets Governor Palin up for another perfect moment to score.
Can she deliver?
We will see, but she could not be playing this out any better. If she does as well as she did at the Convention, and the hype is stoking by the mainstream media saying how “isolated” she is (read: not available to them), then Governor Palin will be the rare Vice-Presidential choice with a chance to help her ticket. If Palin debates competently, then she will destroy the credibility of her foes for a long time.