I summarize my views of the election here.
By setting goal posts that are reasonable and have worked historically before the day to day and breathless reporting on the race swamps reason, partisans can get a good check up on how the race is going.
Obvious fact #1: If the election were held today, Senator Obama would win handily.
Obvious fact #2: The election is not today.
In fact, as a challenger there are two certain signs that Senator Obama is not doing as well as his partisans would like. Obviously it is better to be ahead than behind, but he is not ahead as much as he should be as a challenger in a Democrat year. Even counting the weird Newsweek poll, his Real Clear Politics poll average is a “blah” lead.
The money report for May is the big news.
As I pointed out in my original post, the entire Obama campaign is predicated on an ability to out raise and outspend McCain by two to one. What if he doesn’t? He has passed on public financing, so what if the well runs dry?
Obama is running a bloated campaign. Oddly, it is McCain who has a better blog and is more nimble and flexible with his campaign strategy which is much less centralized.
Weirdly, Senator Obama is following the Mitt Romney strategy of early big television buys. I warned about that here. We know how that worked out for Romney. In an age of the DVR, why believe people are watching campaign commercials?
Don’t get me wrong: Senator Obama (whom I like) is the favorite. However, his partisans should recognize that he is not doing as well now as the media noise machine (which loves him) makes it seem. He is not doing much better (if at all) than John Kerry. Why?
It cannot be good that he is running about the way Kerry did in such a Democrat year.
What does he need?
He needs his poll numbers to keep a slow steady climb to double digits over the summer.
He needs to reopen his 2-1 fund raising advantage over McCain and sustain it in June, July, and August. If it is close, he is toast. McCain goes on public financing (as every recent candidate, Republican or Democrat has) when the general really starts. Obama must keep raising money. Everyone assumes that will be easy . . . what if it isn’t?