Bottom Line:
Like the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, this election turns on whether the public, sick of the party in power, will trust the office of President of the United States to the sort of politician they would normally reject. Whatever John McCain does, this election is about Senator Obama. If Senator Obama makes no mistakes, he will win. He is not, however, winning right now.
Where Not To Get A Feel for the Campaign
Ignore the sort of partisan site (in terms of getting a feel for the race) that never admits their candidate did something wrong or might lose.
Reading the Daily Kos from before the 2004 election is a good reminder of useless cheerleading (in terms of knowing what is going on). My favorite arguments there in 2004 were the mathematical models that showed that Kerry would win with some astronomically high level of probability.
Weirdly, on the Republican and conservative side there are a fair number of sites that secretly hope for a McCain loss.
This makes them a bit more balanced and (oddly) more useful. Republican sites (generally) are not in love with McCain. They see his flaws as a candidate.
Good sites report bad news as bad news. My favorites on the right are (of course) the Campaign Spot (on NRO) and Hugh Hewitt. Both are open in their hopes that McCain will win, but both have admitted that he is not the favorite. I have yet to find a pro-Obama site that is not worshipful of the Great Man and will admit that he could lose on any grounds other than the Evil of Americans.
That is actually a weakness for the Obama campaign. Outside of the candidate, there are too many true believers and not enough pragmatists.
My assumptions:
First, Senator Obama polls well, but in a general election will do (as most Democrats do) slightly worse than he polls.
Second, Senator Obama has support that is concentrated. He will win some states (New York) by huge margins. He will lose some states (North Carolina) by very narrow margins. Electoral votes are winner take all and so unlike the Democrat primary, Senator Obama gets no points for being close. He has a built in electoral disadvantage not seen in popular opinion polls.
Third, this is a very Democrat year. Any Democrat is a huge favorite.
Fourth, Senator Obama is a very good candidate. He is a great speaker, very smart, and reasonable. Most conservatives I know deeply wish he was a conservative! We like him personally.
Fifth, vice-president picks only matter if they harm the candidate with voters and not pundits. There is only one serious pick in this election that could change things and I am assuming Senator Obama is too smart to make it.
Senator Obama must not pick Senator Clinton. That would be the one big summer mistake that would doom his candidacy. If she forces him to do so at a charged convention (and she might be able to do so), then his defeat is nearly certain.
Short of a disaster pick, McCain cannot do much with his choice. Decent picks would be Jindal, Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee, and Palin (in that order).
Finally, I am leaving out “major news.”
If we find that Iraq moved weapons of mass destruction to Syria during the war or we finally get bin Laden, then that is a huge boost to McCain. If the economy rebounds, then that helps McCain. If the oil bubble bursts, then that helps McCain.
On the other hand, if Iraq gets worse in a big way, that helps Obama. If the economy suddenly tanks, then that helps Obama. If oil spikes more, then that helps Obama.
I am assuming that things muddle along in the general direction they are heading.
A Most Useful General Political Rule
My general rule of thumb for politics watcher is to ignore the “day to day” of the campaign. Things that are expected to happen at the start almost always do. For example, the primary front runners most often win. Election favorites win. Using this rule of thumb has made me much more calm during many elections. (George Bush should have won in 2004 and he did.)
The rule is, however, only general. Following it, McCain and Clinton should be the nominees of their parties!
Senator Obama’s Weaknesses
Senator Obama has beaten those odds already to get the Democrat nomination. He is an amazing candidate . . . we need no further data to confirm this! He is also a candidate with a big potential down side, but this down side is mostly in his power to control (The only exception is a scandal in his past. He cannot control when such data is released.)
Therefore, all things being equal in this Democrat year, expect Senator Obama to win.
However, Senator Obama has also shown some weaknesses as a candidate that may keep this from happening. He has lost the first phase of the campaign (unless poll data turns around) His three basic weaknesses are:
1. He is too liberal for most political environments.
If this were a “normal” election, the nation would not risk one of the most liberal members of the Senate any more than they would elect Governor Huckabee in most cases. On the other hand, if this were as much a Republican year as it is Democrat, the Republican Party could have nominated Hucakbee and he could win. The same rules would apply to him that I am applying to Senator Obama.
2. He is over confident in his skills and gaffe prone.
Like most good communicators, (Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Huckabee come to mind) he is prone to believe he can talk himself out of any trouble. He usually can so this is not a foolish belief on his part, but in this kind of election it can be a recipe for disaster. This election is all about his ability to be president, so a gaffe hurts him more than most.
So far his gaffes have been controlled, but he is a candidate perfectly capable of having a very bad moment. Reagan had them and so did Clinton. Both survived their gaffes (because of other strengths), but they were harmed by them. Reagan developed, for example, the undeserved reputation for being dim and Clinton (the deserved reputation) for being “slick.”
These were not helpful to either man . . . though they overcame them. Some candidates do not (Quayle, Ford, Hart, Carter).
Of course, the media has to perceive a gaffe as a gaffe. Since Obama (like McCain) is well liked by the media, he will have to blow it in a place where they cannot ignore his troubles. The center-right media alone cannot dent his charm . . . the problem has to be recognized by the center-left media.
Senator Obama has less ability to survive such a gaffe because of his inexperience and lack of a resume. This is his third problem.
3. He is very unqualified (on paper) to be President.
Senator Obama has no prior experience as a manager or doing much of anything other than running for the next office. If he had been governor of Illinois for even one term, he would win this election in a walk.
The Three Phases of this Election
The election can be broken down into three phases. Thanks to Senator Clinton, Senator Obama has not done as well in the first phase as he could have. In fact, I believe that in his position as challenger, he actually lost this segment of the election. Senator McCain did about as well in the Spring/early Summer as he could have.
Phase One: Up to July 4
Senator Obama could have put John McCain away in the spring, but Senator Clinton stopped him. He also harmed himself by a series of gaffes and blunders that will haunt him the entire election.
He burned through millions of dollars uselessly. His campaign staff is bloated and runs more like a college administration (too many administrators) than like a good campaign.
Senator Obama is his only asset. That is the best asset to have, but his campaign has been lackluster or weird (see those Obama You-Tubes) apart from the candidate. He is winning despite his campaign staff.
He is saved by his virtues from his faults or he would already being doomed. Let’s be candid: a lesser candidate would not have survived Rev. Wright.
Neutral Check:
If Senator Obama is not up by double digits on July 4, then is losing. John Kerry (!) was doing as well against Bush (by some measures) as Senator Obama is doing against Senator McCain. That is very, very bad for Senator Obama.
Advantage: McCain
Phase Two: Up to the Conventions
Fewer people will pay attention during vacation time so the key here is threefold:
1. Raising Money
If John McCain can stay in the money race, then he has shot. If he is getting “doubled” by Senator Obama, he is doomed. If McCain is close, then the weakness of the DNC will harm Senator Obama. This is the best neutral way to measure the race. If McCain is close or ties Senator Obama in money raised, then he is winning.
Senator Obama has to show some fiscal discipline and stop wasting money on what is a bloated and (oddly) old school campaign. His vaunted Internet operation is not so great . . . his greatness as a candidate makes it great.
The Howard Dean run DNC is a joke. If Senator Obama has to rely on it, then he is in trouble.
2. The Conventions.
This is bigger for perception of what happens, than what happens. Few will watch, but many will be told what happens. Senator Obama needs a big lead coming out of his convention to balance the natural tightening that often occurs in a race like this one. If he is not leading by more than ten points after his convention, then he has a problem.
He is most likely to be harmed by a convention that makes him look very liberal . . . too much Pelosi and company will remind many Americans what they don’t like about the Democrats.
Obama must keep the fringe of his party (sorry Kos Kids!) quiet.
John McCain needs his convention quiet (it will be) and making no news. He simply needs his “bounce” to keep Senator Obama to single digits.
3. Avoid the News Making Gaffe
This is obvious and true of both candidates. People do not want to think about politics in the summer. Make them do so at your peril!
Phase Three: The Serious Election
Assume Senator Obama has had an o.k. summer. He has a narrow lead in the polls (five points or so) after both Conventions. I think this lead is the “default” for the election.
What will decide it?
The debates will dominate. If Senator Obama has not put the election away with high summer spending, McCain will naturally close as people get cold feet about big change. (Ford almost beat Carter in another horrific Republican year.)
If Senator Obama wins his debates (and he would have to be the favorite), he can put the election away. If he makes a big gaffe (as Ford did), then he will lose it. Most Americans are comfortable with McCain in office.
If Senator Obama can tie in the debates, he will probably win a narrow electoral victory.
Should Obama debate at all?
Actually, he must since if he does not McCain will be seen as the “winner” and Senator Obama’s weaknesses will be highlighted by default. Senator Obama is the better debater and communicator and is perceived to be so by the public. Ducking debates with a weaker opponent is not an option for him. It will strengthen worries.
Senator Obama must maintain a five point edge in the weeks leading up to the election to win. Otherwise, I believe he will lose a close election in the electoral college. If he wins, it will not be that close (Reagan over Carter), but if he loses, then I think he will lose narrowly, but decisively (Carter over Ford).
Bottom Line:
What does all of this mean?
Senator Obama is no lock to win, but should.
The Democrats have nominated one of the few candidates on the national stage who could lose in this situation. As with Carter in 1976, Senator Obama represents a real risk to many Americans. Like Ford with Carter, Senator McCain must hope that Senator Obama shows feet of clay at some point in order to win.
Carter did, but Ford frittered it away with his own weaknesses and so lost.
John McCain (oddly) should not make news. He can only wait and see.
This is Senator Obama’s election to win. The only problem is that right now, he is not winning it. He has shown the very weaknesses (gaffes, inexperience) against an easier opponent (Senator Clinton with her huge negatives) that will cost him the election. If he keeps running as he is (surely he will not!), then he will lose.
I believe he is losing now.
A Final Thought On Race in this Election
One thing I don’t think matters much to the over all outcome is race. Racist voters (and there are some) will be counter-balanced by increased African-American turnout and the appeal to most of us of electing the first African-American president. I hope (and believe) that on the whole Senator Obama’s race will not be a “bottom line” factor in the election.
