This election will be all about Senator Obama.
He has made history in a good sense. Only a racist or a fool (while all racists are fools not all fools are racists) isn’t happy to see a nation conceived in the original sin of slavery nominate an African-American for president. That is not a good reason to vote for him, but it is a good thing.
Like Reagan in 1980, the country is fed up with the incumbent party. Like Reagan in 1980, the country is open (which is rare) to somebody more from the edge of acceptable politics. The attractive challenger can get a big majority of the voters . . . if. It is the “if” that makes this election interesting. My bet is that in the end it will not be very close. If Obama can show he is acceptable to moderates, then he will win. If he cannot, he will lose in Dukakis style.
Senator Obama has to not lose in order to win.
Senator McCain? Plainly he is acceptable to a solid majority of the country as president. He is the safe pick, but is the Republican nominee (like Bob Dole) in the wrong year. The nation may be fed up enough with President Bush (sadly) and the Republicans (understandably) to take a risk . . . if the risk isn’t too big.
This is why Senator Obama cannot afford another Jeremiah Wright scandal. He cannot look extreme or he will lose. The Republicans nominated a plausible president . . . but cannot control the election. Senator Obama can.
My bet is that the punditry has overestimated Senator Obama’s skills as a campaigner, because they want him to win (as they did not wish Reagan to win). Clinton was overrated as a campaigner and next to her anybody would look good. Senator Obama appeals to my demographic and to younger voters. He has a lock on the African-American vote which will turn out in record numbers.
Can he broaden that base? I don’t think so, because I think the truth is that Senator Obama is the most liberal (or one of the most liberal) members of the Senate. I think that will become obvious over the campaign.
Weirdly, I think we will know a great deal in the next month. Senator Obama is getting glowing press . . . front page worship really everywhere. If he does not open a solid ten point lead in the RC Politics averages, then he is in trouble. Underdogs (McCain) tend to close in American politics, while the fresh face has his biggest lead now and at the time of his convention. It has always been troubling to Obama fans that his early leads over McCain have been small. In some polls (like Rasmussen), he is often behind. The excuse for that has been the “tough” Democrat primary (which was not really tough compared to a general).
Now we will see.
If Obama is in solid double digits (fourteen or higher) by the Fourth of July, then I am pretty sure he will win. If he is in single digits, then I am pretty sure he will lose. Anything in between is a muddle.