This is an odd election. The Republican brand is nearly terminal and they should lose in November, but their opposition decided to nominate the most liberal member of the United States Senate. If they were going to win, the Democrats decided to win with a real progressive. That makes sense, but it also means they could lose an election they should be certain to win.
This is a good to time to sum up the state of the race. I have nothing but joy at the end of the Clinton dynasty, so not having to list five reasons she will lose (the Clinton family lost!) is good fun.
Five Reasons Obama Will Lose:
1. He turns off states Democrats normally need to win. Example: He will not carry West Virginia. Look up the last time that a Democrat won without carrying West Virginia.
2. He is not leading by much (if any) in the spring. Challengers, especially against an unpopular party in power, should be getting their peak poll numbers about now. . . and around their convention. Senator Obama is either up by eight (not so great by historical challenger standards) or losing.
3. His electoral college map is tight with no margin to alienate another important constituency. One more “sweetie” and he is in a world of “stay at home” hurt.
4. His political record is not mainstream on several issues and very liberal or conservative candidates usually lose.
5. His followers, and that is the best word for them, are weird, producing the kind of messianic stuff that will not stand the test of time. . . heck even fifteen minutes of time . . . very well.
John McCain:
1. George Bush. Thirty-three percent of us may like the President and history may be kind to him, but in the short term he has clobbered the Republican brand. If the election is about “four more years,” McCain will lose.
2. Age. He has it.
3. Money. He doesn’t.
4. He has a tight electoral college map. (See Obama.) He is one gaffe away from alienating another important group on the right who will stay at home.
5. He needs Senator Obama to make a mistake or to do poorly. He almost certainly cannot control his own fate. This election will be about the American people deciding if they want Senator Obama with McCain as the safe choice. That is only good if Senator Obama fails to convince people (as Reagan did) that a “far to the edge” candidate can be trusted with the levers of power.
Bottom Line:
Bet on Obama, but not the mortgage. Weirdly, though he will never lose his forty-four percent of the population, he is one big gaffe away from losing in a relative landslide an election he should not be able to lose. He cannot afford another Jeremiah Wright moment. This is a race between a party that cannot win, the Republicans, and a candidate who normally would not win, Senator Obama.