1. Senator Clinton is finished, really.
She is out of miracles. As I write this the outcome of Indiana is unclear, but it is closer than she needed it to be. Why keep running Senator Clinton? You have already confirmed to the rest of the nation what Republicans always knew about the Clinton family: it was not about us, but about you. Now try to keep the reputation for shrewdness the family is rapidly losing.
2. Senator Obama is the winner, but he has serious general election problems. People who ignore how unpopular Senator Obama is with a big swath of the electorate (unrelated to race) are deluded.
He is popular with the kind of people who decide who is popular . . . and the African-American community.
If this were not a Democrat year, he would be unable to put together the electoral math. As it is, he can, perhaps, but just barely in the electoral college. He needs to broaden his base . . . fast.
One more serious gaffe or revelation about weirdling friends and he may be unable to put the vote together. What Bush states does he gain right now? Colorado, New Mexico, Neveda, and Iowa look like his best plays. Virginia and North Carolina are long shots, but he has the money to try.
Trouble in Pennsylvania . . . all by itself . . . would balance much of Obama’s best opportunities which are in smaller Western states. He can add serious concerns in Wisconsin and the probability of losing New Hampshire. McCain would have long shot plays in Michigan, New Jersey, and Maine.
3. Sadly, race still counts, even in the Democrat primary.
4. Mayors matter.
Get the pol with the machine and not the Congressmen without one if you want to be President. Some old truths are still true.
5. Jeremiah Wright did not finish off Barack Obama with Democrat voters. He will matter in the general, but he is not enough.
6. Money counts and now Senator Obama is going to be able to unleash a ton of negative ads on Senator McCain. McCain lacks the money to respond. Senator Obama should lead all summer as a result. If he does not, or it is very close, then Senator Obama is in real trouble. Republicans with delusions about this being easy should invest in Countrywide mortgages.
7. Senator McCain has run a hapless campaign since clinching. He has been lucky and not made his own breaks. Some of his decisions bewilder me. Why speak to La Raza? Are there votes there? Why speak to the NRA? Don’t you have those votes already? McCain seems unable to realize that not making your base mad while reaching out to independents is how he will win.
How did Tuesday teach us that? The protest vote in Republican primaries is still very large.
8. Bill Clinton is finished as a political force. He also looks older and more battered than John McCain.
9. Senator Clinton’s speech tonight reminded us how bad a campaigner she has been. She is as bad a stump speaker as Obama is good.
10. Senator Obama needs a new speech writer fast. His stuff is very old and tired.