The fun of punditry is taking a risk. Even if he wins the Democrat Party nomination, and if does his speech will spike him in the polls, I believe that the best moment to be Obama is now.
He will not win the presidency, he may not even be the nominee of his party.
In any case, tonight is the very moment when criticism of Obama is the least and when his magic has not yet, quite, grown stale. Tomorrow will be the start of the sad revelation, even if it is too late to save Clinton, that hope needs substance even if unseen.
Let me give one simple reason for this belief . . . so improbable given the conventional wisdom it almost surely is wrong.
Obama is not wearing well. If you are not already of Obama, there is something comic about his use of purple prose. We have seen a Democrat with a silver tongue run before in the shape of William Jennings Bryan. Even William Jennings Bryan waited to the end of arguments to crucify himself on a cross of gold. Obama is all the drama of Bryan with none of the substance (!).
In his first election for president, if the vote had been cast in the summer Bryan would have swept all before him. By the fall, repetition had robbed rhetoric of resonance and Bryan was done. Obama will electrify the world one more time with “future” and “change,” but then the chill of winter will come to his springtime hope.
When even those of Obama cannot name one accomplishment of the junior senator, there is cause to fear that a nation with a short attention span will tire of him.
For the first time, while watching ads friendly folk have created for him attacking McCain, I saw the limits of his campaign. The ads were cool, college cool, and they made the Old Man look very old. They mocked McCain with post-post-post-modern irony so inside that it was stunning.
It was the first time I disliked Obama. The cool kids were ripping the tired old hero . . . and they looked elitist, out of touch, and unsympathetic.
I was not the target demographic of the ad, of course, but then the target demographic is already as of Obama as a group can be. It was piling on . . . and older folk will resent it. A man who is golden will face a silver man with heroic scars and if he is not very, very careful Obama will discover the power of the tough kids when they learn to resent the cool.
What is easier in our cynical age to mock than high flown empty rhetoric? If they wished, a Colbert-culture could demolish Obama, fairly or not, as George Soros’ suit of clothes.
Obama is a man without a paper trail who would not vote in the state legislature (!) rather than risk his image.
Tonight few, outside of impotent Republican pundits, mock his flash without substance. Certainly the humorless Hillary cannot do it, but someone will. If not, then he will be president and worse can befall the Republic than that.
But I suspect in the world of you-tube, someone will figure “the speech” out and mock it with mad skill. He has no service like McCain to fall back on or generations of liberal battle to prove his depth like Clinton . . . destroy his rhetoric and his reason for running is gone.
Obama should step back from mere inspiration and win the White House by using his first rate mind to propose policy without end (not just on line but on the stump). He can call on inspiration at will, but hit the button too often and each time it will work less well.
Everyone is not watching, yet, but come the Convention they will be. He will rocket again, but how many more times will America listen? My University had students bored with 9/11 on 9/11 . . . what will the shelf life be on “we are the change we are waiting for?”
How long before those not of Obama laugh out loud?
The big lead of sweltering June will become the cold fall of November.
If Obama does not change soon (and he will hesitate to change while winning until too late), then some comic genius will discover the key to his rhetoric . . . the revivalism without a gospel and the man who tries not to speak without a teleprompter will find that sometime near Saint Valentine’s Day he was happiest.
(Ritual Disclaimer: Obama is the first Democrat in my lifetime to make me wish I did not disagree with him. If the election where held today, I would vote for John McCain, but wish Obama were a pro-life conservative . . . or even moderate!