Based on my sense of the race, and with access to early returns from other web sites, here is my “base line” for each state.
The big winner tonight?
It may be the Not McCain if he only wins states Republicans cannot win in the general and Arizona.
Romney:
Best Case (sustains race): California by 10 delegates, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Massachusetts (by more than McCain in Arizona), Delaware, North Dakota, Montana.
Worst Case (ends race): no California majority, Utah, Massachusetts (by less than McCain in Arizona), Delaware.
Huckabee:
Best Case (new life for Texas and Ohio): high single digit delegates in California, West Virginia, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, North Dakota.
Worst Case (no cash, further national fade): 3 or less in California, West Virginia, Arkansas.
McCain:
Best Case (close to a lock on the nomination): Oklahoma, Missouri, Georgia, Colorado, California by 10 delegates, New York (with majority of popular vote), New Jersey (with majority of popular vote), Connecticut (with majority of popular vote), Arizona (by more than Romney in Massachusetts), Oklahoma, Illinois.
Worst Case (starts the McCain meltdown of 2008): loses California by 10, 3rd in Georgia, New York (no majority in popular vote), New Jersey (no majority in popular vote), despite winning all the delegates in NY, NJ, and Connecticut is perceived to have underperformed in the popular vote in states Republicans cannot carry, Arizona (by less than Romney in Massachusetts), Illinois.
In Order of Importance:
California:
Romney needs to win California. “Win” means get most of the delegates. If McCain swamps Romney here, then the race is over.
Call: Romney
Colorado:
Most important swing state. If McCain fails here, then he may start to look like he is winning only states Republicans cannot win in the general.
Call: Romney
Missouri:
The race to watch. If Romney wins Missouri and California, it is a new race.
My Call: Romney
Georgia:
If Huck does not win here, he has no reason to continue. If McCain wins here, he is even more the front runner. If Romney wins, then the Giants are no longer the upset of the week.
I think a Huck win here actually helps Romney by keeping McCain from winning the state.
Call: Huckabee.
New York:
Silly that this is winner take all, when the winner will not take the race in the fall.
Call: McCain
New Jersey:
Always teases Republicans, always to go Democrat.
Call: McCain
Connecticut:
One name: Joe.
Call: McCain
Arizona:
My right-to-life friends in state don’t like McCain.
Native son is not so well liked amongst the sort of vote in primaries. This could be closer than Massachusetts.
Call: McCain
Utah:
Are they ready for a Mormon in the White House?
Call: Romney
Massachusetts:
They help their sort-of-native son.
Call: Romney
Oklahoma:
If McCain wins here, it will show some strength in a Republican state. If Huckabee wins, then he may be back.
Call: Huckabee
Alabama:
Huck will win here, if he wins anywhere other than Arkansas.
Call: Alabama
Tennessee:
If Huck wins here and in the other Southern states, then he might be the nights big winner.
Call: Huckabee
Arkansas:
Native son.
Call: Huckabee
Delaware:
This is a state for economic conservatives.
Call: Romney
Illinois:
Another safe McCain win in a state Republicans cannot win in the general.
Call: McCain.
North Dakota:
Romney’s organization or help from the South for Huck?
Call: Romney.
Montana:
More Romney organizational muscle.
Call: Romney.
Alaska:
Does anybody know?
Call: Ron Paul.