Bottom Line:
Any candidate can be stopped, but the “band wagon effect” means that if McCain does not lose in Florida, he will almost certainly be the Republican nominee. There are good reasons for Republicans to avoid this outcome.
Argument:
From the start of this race, I have suggested that the most “boring outcome” usually is true. There is great excitement in the primaries, but the person “due” almost always wins the Republican primaries and the early favorite the Democrat. This rule of thumb would make McCain the Republican nominee and Clinton the Democrat.
Giuliani is finished if the absentee ballots in Florida don’t pull him through. These ballots were cast before he was a man whom fame outran so that the name died before the man.
Huckabee needs an actual miracle to win after an act of God, bad weather, and McCain’s empty suit of clothes, Fred Thompson, acted as his personal Satan.
Romney is a governor, is right on the issues, and may be the anybody-but-McCain candidate, but he is not a good “negative” campaigner. Romney needs to find his Thompson to take down McCain, but none of the other candidates seem to like Mitt enough to do his dirty work for a vice-presidential nod.
McCain is already leading in many states once considered safe for Giuliani. Voters like winner and McCain is winning. Huckabee can no longer be counted on to stop McCain, the war hero, in states like Georgia.
McCain defeated Romney in his home territory. McCain defeated Huckabee in his home territory. He has exposed the mainstream conservative media as out of touch and ineffective to date. They had the power to ding Huckabee, who had little money and lost major media mojo when McCain recovered, but have yet to lay a finger on McCain.
McCain is insulated from harm by the conservative establishment by his regular party support, his major media fans, and his war hero status. He is also older. Being a veteran in every way appeals to the very demographic where the major conservative establishment organs (Rush, National Review) have the most clout.
McCain has been less good, than lucky. He was helped when Huckabee wounded Romney in Iowa. He was helped when Fred Thompson, a friend, stopped Huckabee for him in South Carolina in a political murder-suicide.
Given that he is, at present, the candidate most likely to beat Hillary or Obama based on polls, which have been oh so reliable this election, why should Republicans want to stop him?
First, McCain’s status as front-runner is due to a series of lucky breaks. He is not received a hard blow yet in a contested primary. His high poll numbers are to a great extent the result of this and of favorable media coverage. He is the major media’s favorite Republican, but will lose that help in the general election.
The opponents with the money to go negative up to this point have not wanted to do so, for reasons of their own, and the opponents who needed to go negative lacked the money to make it stick. Romney does not have the perceived “authenticity” to make a negative campaign stick.
Second, McCain is gaffe prone. His temper is legendary and in a general election, when the major media turn on him, we can expect to see it. He also has a scandal in his past (Google Keating) which will blunt his ability to use ethics charges against Clinton.
Third, McCain is rarely eloquent, is only energetic when mad, and is old. He cannot match the electric excitement generated by Obama or the rigid campaign discipline of Clinton.
Fourth, McCain is a senator and no senator has won in my lifetime. The Democrats are betting to change that statistic, but the lack of executive experience negates the natural advantage of running against a sitting senator. Senators votes, but don’t rule. They have many votes that can be used against them, but have never been the person in charge.
Finally, nobody amongst the activist base much likes McCain and many despise him. He negates any advantage might have on the illegal immigration issue.
Who is going to go ring November door bells for John McCain? What is his base in the party? Young adults in the Republican Party are motivated by candidates like Huckabee or Paul. Abortion foes might rally to prodigal-son-come-home Romney, but for whatever reason they distrust McCain.
Next year will be tough for Republican regardless of the nominee, but McCain only looks good now. He is not likely to wear well in a general. He would have my vote, but with no passion. When an eighth generation Republican says that, there is a big problem for a nominee!
(Bias Alert: