1. The conservative establishment strongly dislikes John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul. Most Republican voters in South Carolina (over sixty percent) voted for them. My worry that the old Reagan information machine is failing is confirmed in South Carolina.
2. Huckabee won amongst voters my age or younger. Ron Paul got a very large vote amongst the youngest cohort of voters.
Mike Huckabee will not be the nominee, but the future is bright for his sort of candidate. There is a future for Bull Moose Republicans. His concession speech laid down a marker for this movement.
Can we also stop describing Evangelicals as a uniform block now? They voted for Mitt Romney in Nevada (where they outnumber Mormons) and split their vote fairly evenly in South Carolina despite having a favorite son in the state.
3. Fred Thompson finished off himself and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee’s appeal was too narrow and Fred Thompson ran a horrid campaign. In the end, he seems to have developed just enough energy to kill Huckabee and rest peacefully hoping for a vice-presidential nod from his friend John McCain.
Was there ever a candidate with more promise who did less than Fred Thompson?
4. Money matters in politics. Huckabee did not have enough to overcome negative ads run by opponents. The Establishment can defeat a candidate without deep pockets.
He will win many delegates in the states ahead. He will be a player at the convention.
5. The candidates with a chance at the nomination are now McCain and Romney . . . unless Rudy Giuliani can revive himself in Florida. This seems dubious to me, but wait for some mainstream Republicans to try to buttress his fading poll numbers in a “stop McCain” movement.
I am on the whole feeling good about my choice tonight. Mitt Romney, the last governor with a chance to win, has a fantastic pro-growth economic plan out now. The days ahead will be exciting.
