(Ritual disclosure: It is more fun when your candidate wins than when he loses. I have been and remain a Romney guy.)
What does the Romney victory mean in Michigan?
First, Romney ran well (maybe close to even) with Evangelicals. That is key. Evangelicals will vote for Mitt Romney.
Second, Romney runs well in every key group of Republicans. This was true in the four states that have voted. No other candidate has done so well in every key Republican demographic.
Third, underestimating Mike Huckabee is an error.
He represents a new idea in Republican politics. He has been treated very shabbily by some in the party and his no reason to quit. If he does better than fifteen percent in Michigan from a standing start, then in a brokered convention he will be a powerful player. On the other hand, he did not broaden his base and so (it seems to me) cannot win the nomination.
Fourth, Fred Thompson cannot be the nominee nor can Rudy Giuliani.
Both have gotten whipped in every election up to this point. In Rudy’s case, the base has rejected him even in state’s where he actually spent a great deal of money. In Thompson’s case, he is broke and now Romney is the Reagan heir apparent removing his only reason for staying in the race. His CSA-only strategy is ideally suited . . . for nothing.
(He is the rhetoric of the past, an empty suit of clothes with as far as I can tell no substantial accomplishment, and as my son put as he heard him on FOX, “He harps on rather a lot.”)
Finally, the McCain moment to end the campaign quickly is past. It was critical for McCain that he win immediately and put conservative criticism to rest. He failed and he is badly suited to a campaign of attrition. We can now wait for the McCain temper to flare.
Will it be over Romney stepping on his concession speech tonight?
Count on him blowing up soon.
He has no money, little base support, and is a bad campaigner. This is best evidenced by his politically insane comment about auto jobs and Michigan. The prophet of doom is never anybody’s favorite, even when he is right as the prophet Jeremiah could tell you.
