Last week, I had a chance to speak with a very wise man (who has been watching Republican politics since Ike) who thinks Fred (!) Thompson is the guy for the GOP.
This Sage of West Virginia is the closest thing to Rupert Giles for culture watchers.
Giles is excited about Fred (!).
It is not wise to dismiss anything Giles says and so I took a look at Fred (!) Thompson. Thompson is an attractive candidate who is as safe a bet right now for the nomination as Spider Man IV at the box office . . .
Giles believes that Thompson has the ability to fire up the base and recapture the states that Bush won in 2004. Giles was willing to bet me a steak dinner (Giles likes meat!) that Fred (!) would take the nomination.
Fred (!) Thompson would certainly get my vote in a match against any of the leading Democrats if he wins the Republican nomination, but I have some questions about Fred (!).
Here are the questions I am posing to Giles after looking Fred (!) over . . . I will let you know if he responds.
(Ritual disclaimer: if the primary were held today, I would vote for Romney.)
1. Can Fred (!) take a punch?
Like the other one name candidate Rudy (!), Fred (!) is used to being treated like a star. He speaks and writes mostly to adoring audiences thrilled to see a (sort of) movie and television star that will support their values. He seems like he might be the kind of guy who gets bored easily when the applause stops.
Comparisons to Reagan are facile, since Fred (!) has not had the extensive acting career of Reagan or the executive experience. Being senator (for a term and a third) is not like being governor of California . . .
There is a lot of wishful thinking around Fred (!). He keeps being called a television and movie “star,” but please enough of this already. Most Americans have no idea who he is. He is not exactly Tom Hanks (though we can be thankful for that politically).
2. Is there any substance?
How smart is Fred (!) without a ghost writer or a prepared set of quips? Does he do his own material? Can he debate? Can he master the details of the War, health care, or the goofier issues that reporters like Chris Matthews will spring on him? The American people will be looking for someone smart enough to equal Hilary (!) in the debates. Can Fred (!) think on his feet in front of a hostile press? Maybe, but I don’t see evidence yet of intellectual discipline and the mental fire needed to take on the whip-smart Hilary (!).
Giles is moderately worried about this . . . since the bad press will come if not now, then after the nomination.
The Senate is not good training for running for President, being a chief executive is better.
3. Can he quip his way out of a rowdy past?
One does not have to google very deeply to discover that Fred (!) hasn’t been a choir boy. When the press starts digging, what will it find? Will anyone care? Should we care? (What is the relationship between public and private lives any way?)
Am I the only one made a tad uncomfortable to read the supposedly positive news that Fred’s many women (the ones talking so far) will vote for him?
Is Romney fated to be the only leading Republican running with his first wife?
4. Can he get women’s votes or expand the base?
Giles admits that this is the thing that worries him most. The cigars and Crusty-White-Man manner work with the sort of voter who listens to Rush (I like these folks!), but Giles worries that after the nomination Fred (!) will look too much like a Pol and too little like a star.
Take a picture of Reagan and put it next to a picture of Fred (!). Which one looks like he would play the back room pol? In fact, Thompson looks more like a svelte William Jennings Bryan (oh that voice!), than he looks like Reagan.
If fans of Fred (!) can go ga-ga over his “voice” and star power, surely it is worth asking if he is the kind of “look” most Americans like in their leader?
5. Does he like social conservatives?
There is a real irritation growing in social conservatives. They feel like they get used by politicians who mock them in private, but pander in public.
One famous political question asked of presidential candidates has been, “Would you like to have a beer with this guy?”, but I think social conservatives are starting to ask, “Would this person be comfortable at my church pot-luck?”
Whatever his religious views, Reagan would have plunged right into a the parish hall, but Fred (!) looks like the sort of guy who would really rather not . . . but maybe I am wrong about Fred (!). Giles thinks so.
We shall see.