An outstanding Torrey chum asks if the mullahs and other religious leaders are not sufficient to count as leaders in a civil war. I think not, because they lack a political platform, an alternative government, or any ideas of how things “could be better.” Hatred of one’s neighbor can raise hell on earth, but is not likely to sustain anything more than unrest. A civil war, the worst of all situations, needs more than hate. It needs an alternative vision. Now those religious leaders in Iraq, the Shiite, who might have such a vision (gained from Iran) are the most likely to support the new constitution since they mostly gain from it. The Sunni who are trying to get the Shiite to abandon support of the constitution are, therefore, trying to get the Shiite clergy and people to act against their own immediate interests. The Sunni people, on the other hand, who have the most short-term gain in the failure of the new constitution seemingly have no alternative plan but chaos. Many Sunni, even if they hate the new constitution, will reject chaos.
So for now I remain that rare Iraq optimist.