Commentators in the United States have been waiting for some time for Iraq to break out into civil war. This has always been the “sophisticated” view of Iraq. However, it seems to me that one key element needed for a civil war, and not just civil unrest, is an opposing leader or ideology. Who is leader of the Reds or Whites in this so-called Iraq civil war? Who is the Lenin or the Wrangel? Where is the Richmond and who will be Jefferson Davis?
Iraq has communities that hate each other. This can lead to terrorism and horrible civil disturbance as we are seeing. There are yet no leaders, widely respected amongst millions or at least hundreds of thousands, who would lead a civil war. There is no ideology to fuel their rage or any clearly marked geographical boundaries for the fight. To have a civil war one must have a Cause for which one is willing to die. . . abstract hatred of somebody else is not enough.
Times are tough in Iraq, and even Bill Buckley has turned sour on the War, but I still think there are good reasons to hope. It is Iran that worries me.